In other words, what are the probabilities P(overLimit = true), P(fraudAlert =
true) and P(cardExpired = true) given the observations?
- You have three observations, internationalActivity = true, cardholderContacted = false, and cardDisabled = true. If we query fraudAlert, we see that P(fraudAlert = true) = 0, because you were not contacted and the bank always contacts when there is a fraud alert. We also find that P(overLimit = true) = 0.71 and P(cardExpired = true) = 0.34. So the most likely cause for the card being disabled is that you went over your credit limit.