Practice Exercise 6.C
1: Background Reading
2: Learning Goals
3: Directed Questions
4: Exercise: Newspaper DeliveryBill has noticed that his morning newspaper delivery has been sporadic. There are several relevant variables relating to whether or not the paper is delivered. Delivery is dependent on the paper having been successfully printed the previous night. Possible explanations for a paper not having been printed are a malfunction at the printing press, or the end of civilization as we know it.
Before continuing, write down the relevant variables for this scenario.
Let's assign some probabilities. The prior probability of a printer malfunction is 0.05. Bill has been noticing some ominous signs of the apocalypse and so expects the end of civilization with a relatively high probability of 0.001. If the end of civilization is here, then the paper not be printed for sure. If there is a printing malfunction and no end of civilization, there is a probability of 0.05 that the paper will be printed (this is non-zero because the malfunction might be fixed in time). If there is no malfunction and no end of civilization, there is a probability of 0.99 that the paper will be printed. If the paper is not printed it will not be delivered. If it is printed, there is a probability of 0.9 that it will be delivered. The fact that this probability is not 1 suggests that there are other possible causes for the paper not being delivered that we should eventually add to our belief network (e.g. the paperboy being sick).
5: Learning Goals Revisited
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